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Case Studies

UST collapse vs DAI stability

What you'll learn in this Analysis
  • How UST and DAI were designed differently

  • Why UST collapsed while DAI remained relatively stable

  • The role of collateral, incentives, and confidence

  • A framework to evaluate stablecoin safety

1. The Core Comparison


Two fundamentally different stablecoin models:

  • TerraUSDΒ β†’ Algorithmic, uncollateralized design

  • DAIΒ β†’ Overcollateralized, asset-backed design


Key Insight

Stability does not come from mechanisms alone. It comes from what backs the system when stress occurs.

2. How UST Worked


UST maintained its peg through a mint-burn mechanism:

  • 1 UST could be swapped for $1 worth of LUNA

  • Supply adjusted based on demand


Core Mechanism

1Β UST↔$1Β ofΒ LUNA1

Assumption

  • Arbitrage would keep UST at $1

  • Market confidence would hold


Problem

  • No real collateral

  • Dependent on LUNA price

  • Dependent on continuous demand


3. How DAI Works


DAI is generated through overcollateralized loans:

  • Users deposit assets (e.g. ETH)

  • Borrow DAI against collateral


Core Requirement


CollateralΒ Value β‰₯ 150% Γ— DAIΒ Borrowed

Mechanism

  • If collateral drops β†’ liquidation occurs

  • System remains solvent


Strength

  • Backed by real assets

  • Risk managed actively


4. The Collapse vs Stability


UST Collapse


Trigger

  • Large withdrawals

  • Loss of confidence


Chain Reaction

  1. UST loses peg

  2. LUNA supply increases

  3. LUNA price collapses

  4. Confidence disappears


Result

  • Death spiral

  • System failure


DAI Stability


During Market Stress

  • Collateral liquidations triggered

  • System remained solvent

  • Peg fluctuations corrected


Result

  • Temporary deviations

  • Long-term stability maintained


5. Core Difference

6. The Role of Confidence


Both systems rely on confidence, but differently:


UST

  • Confidence = core foundation

  • If broken β†’ system collapses


DAI

  • Confidence supports system

  • But collateral provides backup


Insight

Confidence without backing is fragile. Confidence with backing is resilient.

7. Lessons from the Comparison


Lesson 1

Algorithmic stability is fragile


Lesson 2

Collateral provides real security


Lesson 3

High yields can mask risk


Lesson 4

Liquidity crises expose weaknesses quickly


8. Operator Framework


When evaluating stablecoins, ask:


1. What backs the stablecoin?


2. Is collateral sufficient?


3. How does the peg mechanism work?


4. What happens during mass withdrawals?


9. Common Misconceptions


Misconception 1

β€œAll stablecoins are equally safe”


Misconception 2

β€œAlgorithmic models can replace collateral”


Reality

Design determines survival

10. Real Insight

Stablecoins do not fail gradually. They fail when confidence and structure break at the same time.

11. Final Takeaway


UST failed because:

  • No real collateral

  • Overreliance on confidence

  • Unsustainable incentives


DAI remained stable because:

  • Overcollateralization

  • Risk management

  • Real backing


The key difference:

One was belief-basedOne was asset-backed

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